Commercial Due Diligence · FMCG

FMCG commercial due diligence. By an operator, not a consultant.

Most commercial due diligence on FMCG targets is performed by generalist consultants who have never managed a P&L, negotiated a key account listing, or integrated a sales force. I have — across 30+ countries, at P&G, Danone, and in PE-backed portfolio companies. That's the difference between a report and real commercial intelligence.

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The Route-to-Value™ (RTV) Framework

Eight diagnostic dimensions. Every blind spot covered.

The Route-to-Value™ is Arbol's proprietary assessment framework — a commercial compass built from 20+ years of FMCG operating experience. Borrowing from the FMCG concept of route-to-market, the RTV framework maps the route to value in every acquisition: evaluating the commercial dimensions that determine whether a deal creates or destroys value — systematically, and within 10 business days.

01
Revenue Quality & Concentration
Customer concentration, contract stability, revenue sustainability beyond the founder.
02
Brand Pricing Power
Price elasticity, promotional dependency, private-label vulnerability, margin trajectory.
03
Route-to-Market Effectiveness
Distribution model, channel mix, geographic coverage, margin to trade by channel.
04
Distribution & Channel Health
Weighted distribution, listing quality, shelf positioning, e-commerce readiness.
05
Key Account Dependency
Top-customer risk, trade term sustainability, negotiation leverage, delisting exposure.
06
Category Dynamics
Market sizing, growth vectors, consumption trends, regulatory headwinds.
07
Competitive Positioning
Share trajectory, competitive moat, innovation pipeline, threat assessment.
08
Integration Complexity
Sales force integration risk, distributor transition, synergy feasibility, cultural fit.

If the assessment doesn't surface at least 3 strategic insights your team hasn't identified, you pay nothing. Every engagement. No exceptions.

Why FMCG is different

Generic due diligence misses what actually kills FMCG deals

Route-to-market is everything

"Strong distribution" on a management slide means nothing until you know: which channels, which geographies, what margin to trade, and whether the distributor relationships survive a change of ownership. I've built and rebuilt route-to-market structures at P&G and Conaxess Trade — I know what holds up and what doesn't.

Integration destroys more value than bad targets

The model says €2M in sales force synergies. Reality: key account managers leave, retailer relationships reset to zero, and trade terms get renegotiated from a position of weakness. At Aurelius Group, I saw this pattern repeatedly. The Route-to-Value™ framework scores integration risk before the deal closes — not after.

Brand elasticity is rarely tested

A brand that looks strong on Nielsen data may be entirely promotional-dependent. Strip out the trade spend and the volume disappears. I've managed brand P&Ls at Danone and Energizer — I can read the pricing waterfall and tell you whether there's real brand equity or just bought volume.

Big 4 fees don't match mid-market deal economics

You can't justify €80K+ for commercial DD on a €30M deal. So it doesn't get done — and the investment committee flies on incomplete intelligence. Arbol delivers IC-ready FMCG due diligence from €9,500, personally by a senior operator, within 10 days.

Selected Engagements

Pattern recognition from real FMCG situations

Every assessment draws on experience across hundreds of FMCG commercial situations. Here's how operator-led due diligence surfaces what others miss.

Branded Food · DACH

Route-to-market gaps in a branded snacks acquisition

A DACH-based PE firm was evaluating a €20M branded snacks company with "strong national distribution." The Route-to-Value™ assessment revealed distribution was concentrated in two retail groups representing 68% of revenue — with trade terms due for renegotiation within 6 months of expected close.

Key Insight Surfaced
"Distribution breadth was overstated. Weighted distribution across the target channels was 34%, not the 72% implied by the management presentation."
Household & Personal Care · Cross-border

Integration risk in a cross-border personal care deal

A mid-market PE firm was acquiring a personal care brand operating across three European markets with separate distributor relationships in each. The IC model assumed sales force synergies of €1.8M. The assessment identified that distributor contracts contained change-of-control clauses that would trigger renegotiation on close.

Key Insight Surfaced
"Modelled synergies assumed stable distributor margins. The change-of-control clauses created a 12–18 month period where trade terms would be negotiated from a position of weakness."
FMCG Distribution · Nordics

Hidden margin in an FMCG distribution platform

An acquirer was evaluating a Nordic FMCG distribution company as a bolt-on. The target presented flat margin trajectory. Deep assessment of the trade spend waterfall and promotional allocation revealed €1.2M in recoverable margin from rationalising non-performing promotional commitments across the portfolio.

Key Insight Surfaced
"The flat margin was a trade spend problem, not a structural one. 23% of promotional spend was generating negative ROI — recoverable within the first year post-close."
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Frequently Asked Questions

FMCG commercial due diligence — what you need to know

What does commercial due diligence assess in an FMCG acquisition?

FMCG commercial due diligence evaluates the target's commercial viability across dimensions specific to fast-moving consumer goods: revenue quality and concentration, brand pricing power and elasticity, route-to-market effectiveness, distribution and channel health, key account dependency and trade terms, category dynamics and growth trajectory, competitive positioning, and integration complexity. Unlike generic CDD, FMCG-specific assessment requires deep understanding of trade spend structures, retailer negotiation dynamics, and category management practices.

How long does FMCG commercial due diligence take?

At Arbol, a full IC-ready FMCG commercial due diligence is delivered within 10 business days. A Red Flag Report for early-stage screening takes 3–5 business days. Industry standard at Big 4 and strategy consultancies is 4–8 weeks. The speed difference comes from working with a single senior operator who has deep FMCG pattern recognition, not a team of junior analysts requiring ramp-up time.

How is FMCG commercial due diligence different from generic CDD?

FMCG businesses have unique commercial characteristics that generic CDD frameworks miss: route-to-market structures vary dramatically by geography and channel, trade spend and promotional effectiveness are critical margin drivers, key account concentration creates hidden risk, brand elasticity determines pricing power post-acquisition, and integration of sales forces and distributor relationships is where most FMCG deal value gets destroyed. An operator who has managed these dynamics hands-on will catch risks that a generalist consultant will miss.

What does FMCG commercial due diligence cost?

Arbol's FMCG commercial due diligence starts at €4,500 for a Red Flag Report (3–5 days) and €9,500 for a full IC-Ready Assessment (10 days). This is typically 80–90% less than Big 4 fees for comparable scope. Every engagement includes a guarantee: if the assessment doesn't surface at least 3 strategic insights your team hasn't identified, you pay nothing.

Who conducts the FMCG commercial due diligence at Arbol?

Every engagement is delivered personally by Uwe Thellmann, Arbol's founder and principal. Uwe has 20+ years of FMCG operating experience across Procter & Gamble, Danone, Energizer, and Conaxess Trade, with P&L responsibility across 30+ countries in the Nordics, DACH, and wider EMEA. He also served as an investment professional at Aurelius Group, a European PE firm. This combination of FMCG operator experience and PE-side perspective is what makes Arbol's assessments different from pure consulting approaches.

UT

Uwe Thellmann

Founder & Principal — Arbol Management & Consulting

Procter & Gamble Danone Energizer Conaxess Trade Aurelius Group 20+ Years FMCG 30+ Countries

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